Oklahoma
Texas
Matchup Overview
The Red River Rivalry returns to the Cotton Bowl on Thursday, October 8, and the two sides arrive in very different places. No. 1 Texas (4-0, 1-0 SEC) is unbeaten and has already won its first conference game. No. 24 Oklahoma (2-2, 0-1 SEC) is .500 and lost its SEC opener.
For Texas, the stakes are clear. A win keeps the Longhorns perfect, protects the top ranking and puts them at 2-0 in SEC play heading into the middle of the schedule. For Oklahoma, this is a chance to change the direction of its season. Beating the nation's top-ranked team would even the Sooners' SEC record at 1-1, move them back over .500 and put them firmly in the league race.
The last meeting went to Texas. The Longhorns won 23-6 on October 10, 2025, holding Oklahoma to a pair of field goals' worth of points. The Sooners will need a much more productive offensive day to flip that result.
Keys to the Game
Texas Longhorns
Keep Arch Manning on schedule. Manning is averaging 216.3 yards per game. That steady output has powered Texas through four straight wins. If he stays near that number, he takes pressure off the rest of the offense.
Keep feeding Mac Chiumento. At 190.3 yards per game, Chiumento is the second big source of yards in the Texas offense. Together, Manning and Chiumento account for 406.6 yards per game. Oklahoma has to account for both of them on every snap.
Get more from CJ Baxter. Baxter averages 72.2 yards per game, the lowest of Texas's three listed leaders. If he can push past that average, Texas becomes much harder to defend and can control the tempo of the game.
Oklahoma Sooners
Let John Mateer lead. Mateer averages 220.8 yards per game, the highest mark of any player in this matchup and 4.5 yards more than Manning. Oklahoma's best chance at an upset is for Mateer to beat that average.
Lean on depth. Oklahoma's three listed leaders average a combined 538.3 yards per game, compared with 478.8 for Texas's top three. Jacob Ulrich (167.5 yards per game) and Grayson Miller (150 yards per game) give the Sooners several ways to move the ball.
Turn yards into points. In last season's meeting, Oklahoma scored just six points. The Sooners' production on paper has to show up on the scoreboard against the nation's No. 1 team.
Key Matchups
1. Arch Manning vs. John Mateer This is the headline matchup, and the numbers are close: Mateer averages 220.8 yards per game and Manning averages 216.3. Each offense runs through its leader. The player who protects the ball and makes the most of his chances will likely decide the game.
2. Mac Chiumento vs. Jacob Ulrich These are the second-leading producers for each team. Chiumento (190.3 yards per game) leads Ulrich (167.5) by 22.8 yards per game. That gap is one reason Texas's top two players produce more than Oklahoma's top two (406.6 to 388.3).
3. CJ Baxter vs. Grayson Miller Oklahoma has its clearest edge here. Miller averages 150 yards per game, more than double Baxter's 72.2, a difference of 77.8 yards. If Miller matches his average and Baxter stays near his, Oklahoma could gain a real yardage advantage over four quarters.
4. Texas's top three vs. Oklahoma's top three The three Sooners combine for 538.3 yards per game and the three Longhorns for 478.8. That is a 59.5-yard edge for Oklahoma's group. Texas's 4-0 record suggests the Longhorns have turned their production into wins more consistently, and that is the main question in this game.
Players to Watch
Texas: Arch Manning — 216.3 yards per game Manning has led the offense of the nation's only team in this matchup that is still unbeaten. He averages 216.3 yards per game and had help from Chiumento's 190.3. If he plays at that level on a neutral field, Texas will be hard to beat.
Oklahoma: John Mateer — 220.8 yards per game Mateer is the most productive player in this game by yards per game. At 220.8, he gives Oklahoma the best individual number on the field. An upset will require a big performance from him.
Prediction
Oklahoma's numbers make this closer than the rankings suggest. Mateer (220.8) leads Manning (216.3) by a few yards per game, and Miller's 150 yards per game gives the Sooners a clear edge over Baxter's 72.2. Oklahoma's three listed leaders also outgain Texas's three by nearly 60 yards per game.
Texas still has advantages at the top. Manning and Chiumento combine for 406.6 yards per game, and the Longhorns have turned their production into a 4-0 start. Oklahoma is 2-2. Texas won last year's meeting 23-6, and the Longhorns come in as the more consistent team.
Expect Oklahoma to keep this competitive, with Miller and Mateer leading the way. Texas's top-end production with Manning and Chiumento should be enough to make the difference.
Prediction: Texas 27, Oklahoma 20
